Glen Doth Know

NWD, GHII

Do your own homework. I'll sit here and make 1000%.

Bye.

Labels: GHII, NWD

Nate,

Thanks for the heads up. This is good news. I wouldn’t worry about it.

People are always making bad decisions. Here’s kind of what I’m seeing. Great company, great price. I think some of the growth over the past years is attributable to favorable currency rate shifts, but honestly, all I’m looking for is the currency to stop swinging. Even if the Zloty drops to pennies, they’ll get a new currency and CEDC will price based on that currency… right?

I think you’re right about correlation with Russia. I also think that Poland’s currency is seen as high risk because of how the home mortgages are structured. Some guy replied to my article on CEDC:

CEDC is not a buy at these levels. Bradford, look at what the market is telling you. There is a major currency devaluation going on here. The Zloty may easily depreciate by 200% or more in the next 6 months (from current Zloty/USD exchange rates).

There's no trust in the currency. There's no trust in the exchange rate. It's a floating rate that cannot be stabilized right now. I live in Poland and I've seen this before. No trust in currency = no trust in economy = no trust in CEDC. Don't be foolish. It's going to be years before our economy recovers from this and the Zloty may not even exist in its current form. Throw your calculations out the window. The Zloty is not like the American currency. It will devalue and not regain value. You don't understand what's happening here.

A link to my latest valuations:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/114871-cheers-to-the-zloty#comment-364706

I’m to the point where I’m ready to admit that I don’t know the future or the extent of the devaluation in the Zloty.

Sucks, but you never make money betting with the herd. The herd is looking for the exits. If you read enough of these (link below), then that helps you get a feel for the elasticity of the economy. I will admit, I did not see the whole Zloty thing coming 5 months ago. I’m feeling positive for the future. The past is 100% predictable, and if I’d have known, I’d have been short across the board. Is there still risk with CEDC, yes. I’ve been cleaning up some of my position to allocate into safer plays.

http://www.kmm-language.com/poland_00000a.htm

Glen Bradford
Purdue University
Masters in Business Administration
Bachelors in Industrial Engineering
School of Engineering Student Ambassador

www.glenbradford.com



From: Nate T[mailto:nate
Sent: Monday, January 26, 2009 4:04 PM
To: gbradfo
Subject: CEDC mystery

Hey Glen,

You're definitely right on about CEDC's stock price relationship to the zloty. (Which is also a bit silly when you consider that most of the company's expenses and debt is zloty-denominated.) The action in the Russia's MICEX also seems corollate with the stock to a certain extent. However, it seems as of late that there have been big swings in CEDC with no apparent catalyst from Zloty, Eastern/Central European markets or company news. Today, for example, it's down 5 percent, but Zloty is up 1.6, MICEX up 10 -- and the Polish markets have also seen nice gains. As a big believer in the company and the stock, it's a bit frustrating to be swinging in the dark so frequently when attempting to trade around a core position. Any clues as to what is making this stock move -- hedge funds having their way with it, perhaps?

Cheers,
Nate T


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Corporate Finance Class:

I sit through corporate finance class in a blind panic because I realize that the idealistic viewpoints they are teaching the nations "brightest" MBA students are inherently flawed. I just can't wait to get out and buy into companies that are low risk/high return type vehicles. And, there are so many out there! I'm bringing sexy back. GHII, NWD

Labels: CEDC

I found a penny stock at $0.0035 that is probably worth $1

That's just my calculations. I called up their CEO. Here are some highlights.

Le Reve: what is happening with amne?
21 Jan 09, 22:10
Auger: heh
21 Jan 09, 22:10
glen: if we dont jump the gun?
21 Jan 09, 22:10
Auger: i am waiting for the morning
21 Jan 09, 22:10
glen: that happens right?
21 Jan 09, 22:10
glen: why dont we just wait for the ask to come down in the morning
21 Jan 09, 22:10
glen: i have an idea
21 Jan 09, 22:09
ck74: i have already typed it in as a buy
21 Jan 09, 22:09
glen: oh well.
21 Jan 09, 22:09
Auger: hey!! iremember who tipped you off ;x
21 Jan 09, 22:08
Auger: lol
21 Jan 09, 22:08
glen: i wanna buy in before you raise the ask
21 Jan 09, 22:08
glen: lol
21 Jan 09, 22:08
Auger: i'm gonna bolster my shares in AMNE tomorrow
21 Jan 09, 22:08
ck74: amne looks hawt
21 Jan 09, 22:08
Auger: i will, i pass through new haven on my way home
21 Jan 09, 22:08
glen: you should go visit them, haha
21 Jan 09, 22:08
Auger: originally that is
21 Jan 09, 22:07
Auger: not far from new haven
21 Jan 09, 22:07
Auger: yeah i'm from CT
21 Jan 09, 22:07
glen: yes.
21 Jan 09, 22:07
Auger: you think they know what they're doing right?
21 Jan 09, 22:07
glen: and the housing market there is better than average
21 Jan 09, 22:07
Auger: did you get this from your conversation?
21 Jan 09, 22:07
glen: but, these guys have been doing this stuff for 15+ years in the conneticut area
21 Jan 09, 22:07
glen: he's just been pushing the company all over the place
21 Jan 09, 22:07
Auger: what does the merging and reverse merging mean?
21 Jan 09, 22:06
Auger: glen just did a boatload of research about them
21 Jan 09, 22:06
glen: they are about 20 strong
21 Jan 09, 22:06
glen: they've been merging and reverse merging for a while
21 Jan 09, 22:06
Auger: that's my bet !
21 Jan 09, 22:06
Auger: AMNE
21 Jan 09, 22:06
ck74: who?
21 Jan 09, 22:06
Auger: yeah
21 Jan 09, 22:06
glen: they have "Green" insulation
21 Jan 09, 22:06
glen: profit margins are increasing
21 Jan 09, 22:06
glen: they are in a profitable nitch already
21 Jan 09, 22:05
Auger: haha
21 Jan 09, 22:05
glen: hes probably going to acquire some debt
21 Jan 09, 22:05
glen: he knew more vocabulary than me.
21 Jan 09, 22:05
Auger: hrm
21 Jan 09, 22:05
glen: the guy is lucid
21 Jan 09, 22:05
Auger: haha
21 Jan 09, 22:05
glen: the guy has connections
21 Jan 09, 22:05
Auger: what's the report??
21 Jan 09, 22:05
glen: alright.
21 Jan 09, 22:04
ck74: i think the LONG TERM they will do ok.. BUT will need recovery of the auto industry to really take off again
21 Jan 09, 22:04
Auger: but hey trust your gut
21 Jan 09, 22:03
Auger: but i changed my mind
21 Jan 09, 22:03
Auger: i was thinking the same thing
21 Jan 09, 22:03
ck74: correct i think i am gonna gamble on them
21 Jan 09, 22:03
Auger: they have huge payments coming
21 Jan 09, 22:03
Auger: if their shares don't take off they're gonna go bankrupt
21 Jan 09, 22:03
ck74: not rightnow they ust are reworkingcuz they took xm over.
21 Jan 09, 22:03
ck74: they are gonna do good at superbowl
21 Jan 09, 22:02
Auger: sirius is flirting with bankruptcy
21 Jan 09, 22:01
ck74: siri
21 Jan 09, 22:01
ck74: sirius
21 Jan 09, 22:00
Auger: what stock?
21 Jan 09, 21:58
ck74: wouldyou go after a stock with a possable reverse split coming?
21 Jan 09, 21:57
Auger: must be a good convo?
21 Jan 09, 21:57
tocamix90: w t f
21 Jan 09, 21:57
glen: phone still
21 Jan 09, 21:48
Auger: oh man i'm eagerly awaiting the results of this phone call
21 Jan 09, 21:44
Auger: 8:45
21 Jan 09, 21:44
SuperTrader: as i do most of the time
21 Jan 09, 21:44
SuperTrader: It's kind of late there, I suspect you will get the machine
21 Jan 09, 21:42
Auger: i'll be waiting : )
21 Jan 09, 21:42
glen: on phone
21 Jan 09, 21:40
Auger: haha awesome
21 Jan 09, 21:40
glen: haha
21 Jan 09, 21:40
glen: calling ceo
21 Jan 09, 21:40
Auger: its got some contact info
21 Jan 09, 21:39
Auger: is their website, i'm sure you already knew that though
21 Jan 09, 21:39
Auger: http://www.sprayfoamnation.com/home.php?cat=0
21 Jan 09, 21:39
Auger: not that
21 Jan 09, 21:39
Auger: whoops
21 Jan 09, 21:39
Auger: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/American-Green-Group-Inc-936722.html
21 Jan 09, 21:38
glen: i figure average salary is $50K
21 Jan 09, 21:38
Auger: ah
21 Jan 09, 21:38
glen: depends how many people are employed
21 Jan 09, 21:38
Auger: so they got enough overhead to cover it
21 Jan 09, 21:38
glen: i'm trying to figure out how many people work for AMNE now
21 Jan 09, 21:38
glen: 1.2M is your gross margin
21 Jan 09, 21:38
glen: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=7107
21 Jan 09, 21:37
SuperTrader: KEME is looking good for the morning susie
21 Jan 09, 21:37
SuperTrader: but, if the stock goes up you could lose who knows how much
21 Jan 09, 21:37
Trader gal: whats looking good for tomorrow
21 Jan 09, 21:37
Auger: glen you're gonna have to fill me in, i'm not quite following your math
21 Jan 09, 21:37
SuperTrader: and make the difference
21 Jan 09, 21:36
SuperTrader: then when the price goes down, you can buy the shares cheaper to cover your short sell
21 Jan 09, 21:36
glen: 4M*.3=1.2M
21 Jan 09, 21:36
glen: 2.5+1.5M=4M
21 Jan 09, 21:36
SuperTrader: sweet toca
21 Jan 09, 21:36
SuperTrader: If you shorting something you are basically selling shares you dont really own at the price that they are at
21 Jan 09, 21:35
Auger: i'm glad i asked for your opinion ;x
21 Jan 09, 21:35
tocamix90: up to 1.15 after hours
21 Jan 09, 21:35
Auger: nice digging

Labels: AMNE

what to buy
when to buy it
when to sell it
how much to pay
how to gauage whether everything is on track once you have invested
what to focus on when searching for investmeents

Huge Buy Right now.

Labels: AOB

What does it mean to invest intelligently?
In life, I often find that it’s a lot easier by starting out trying to define what something is by showing examples of what it is not.
1. It is not a risk seeking behavior. A risk seeking behavior is one that actively seeks risk reward situations in which the risk is significantly greater than the reward. This brings us to the next question: what is risk?
a. Risk is not volatility in stock price. Risk is not beta. Academics that get caught up writing algebraic formulas designed to most efficiently allocate capital might say that it is. For example, a triple or nothing strategy with the odds of 50:50 may or may not be seen as a risky behavior given the quantity of plays you’re allowed and the capital required to play.
b. Risk is the depreciation in stock price and the permanent loss of capital.
2. It is not successful without a logical premise. In all statistics courses, there is an emphasis on the fact that there needs to be reasoning behind the variables and whether or not they impact the outcome. For example, the relationship between crime and ice cream sales are a correlation due to higher crime rates in the summer and not having anything to do with ice cream triggering criminal behavior.
a. Is there a solar cycle/stock market cycle correlation or causation?
b. Can you predict the stock market using terra cards?
c. Does previous price performance indicate future price performance (technical analysis)?
d. Can you beat the market?
3. Positive and Negative feedback
a. The most successful investment strategies are not always successful for short durations of time. If they were, then everyone would all-aboard and those investments would begin to receive the average market return.
4. Research and effort doesn’t always pay off.
a. In high school and college, basically the land of academia, a lot of my friends put in a lot of “time and effort” but were unable to push above average grades. Since time and effort are subjective and some achievements require more effort and time than others, it seems like a lot of people who don’t receive the positive feedback of being better than average begin settling.
b. I’ve worked a variety of jobs. I’ve worked those that require long hours and lots of effort as well as after school jobs that require little time and occasional effort. I guarantee you that when I worked my first construction job and dug a 1x1x1 meter hole and filled it in, it required time and effort --- but it didn’t pay off.

Labels: incomplete ideas

A Bull is Born 2009
By
Glen Bradford

Paul Price Tribute:
My friend Paul Price is calling for a Bullish 2009.


For example, here’s an article that upsets me:

All it does is have a bunch of analysts guess about their “favorite” ideas. Looking through them --- I question the validity of it all. I mean, if my day job was to be an analyst, I wouldn’t recommend buying the Dow Jones Index unless I believed that no amount of analysis could give market beating insight. But then, why would I want to be an analyst? Well, it goes to show that the people most willing to give you advice recommends that you diversify into their ideas while they take their commissions and fees. I call this sell-side asset management. It’s the largest legal pyramid scheme. One indication of this type of heresy is when the recommendation comes without the disclosure of ownership of their recommendation. So far, I’ve only done this to one company, National Presto (NPK). Needless to say, it outperformed the market and my portfolio by 40% in the last 2 months. Yes, I’m kicking myself. The people you should take advice from are young and retired.

Call it Late:
I try not to call it early, I try to call it late --- and that’s where I am. I’m at the cross roads. I hate that the Dow appears to have bottomed so early and so high, but it looks like a good time to get in if you like to go long. I called the Hang Seng bottom earlier --- and I like that one a lot more. Back then I’d have assigned a 90% probability to that bottom. I’d assign a 75% probability to the Breaking Bull 2009. But first, why am I more right than the last guy?

Don’t Call it Early:
Searching Google (GOOG) I found some comparable market calls:

Welcome to the Bear
August 12, 2007

False Bottom 1
March 16, 2008

False Bottom 2
July 30, 2008


Why I think we are in a Bull Market:
Reason 1. Based on Vanguard’s definition of a Bear Market, where a 20% decline in major indices indicates bear market territory, it makes sense to me to have a 20% similar appreciation indicate the death of Bear 2008 and the birth of Bull 2009.

So, from the bottoms of November 20th 2008, how far have we come?
S&P 500 Dow30
8-Nov 752.44 7552.29
+20% 902.928 9062.748
Today's Close 931.8 9034.69

Looks to me like we’re breaking the 20% barrier. Doug Short’s been looking at this against the previous Bear Markets.



Reason 2.
Lots of investors are looking for the return of their money and not the return on their money. There’s been a bubble in US treasuries that is screaming negative expected inflation over the next 10 years. My best guess is that since the Fed has pretty much doubled the supply of dollars… inflation will happen. The cause of the bubble can of course be explained by game theory, as can most of the manic depressiveness of market cycles.

Reason 3.
The market rallied friday and Cramer didn’t say sell into the gains, even though it rallied on insignificant volume. There’s a lot of money sitting on the sidelines. Game theory indicates that sidelines money will come into play ball when they start to think that they’re going to miss the boat.

Sidenote.
There’s been a lot of talk about this thing called the January Effect. Studies show that when an effect is made public, it ceases to exist. The reason we’re seeing this effect this time is not because of the old story of year-end tax purposes. We are seeing an inflation of horror story hedge fund sell-offs, that is all.

Labels: DXO, RSX, TBT

Alright, The etf's that are going to crush the S&P500 over 2009 are TBT, DXO, and FXI.

I already called the bottom in FXI, but I'm still cautions on TBT and DXO, although it looks like it could have happened.

Labels: DXO, FXI, TBT