Glen Doth Know

on the hunt through my old favorites to find a few that aren't hurting except in their stock price. looking for something not china in this case, also not in the financial markets. lets work down a list that i screened out in order of stock price appreciation potential according to ben graham's formula P/E = 8 + 2G

NOV - cyclical downturn mildly "entertaining" this company. worth a lot more and my feeling is that you wont lose money on NOV, trading at book value, trading above backlog
BUCY - as red hot as coal, selling for cheaper than its backlog, also hurting a bit with the recession
dxpe - damn, hurting a bit, but still cheap. more easy money for those rich folk out there that read my blog and can't buy my pennies
aob - another great play, not hurting, everyone hates aob cause it is in china, not going to cut it in this search
psys - lowered guidance, still a growth machine as far as i can tell - i'd be cautious and wait and see on this one, not as confident as i am with those listed above. still deserves a P/E of 17.
azz - cut estimates for 2010 (in actuality, 2009, but that's cause their fiscal ends in february). i think they'll clear this hurdle.
sohu - chinese internet, better than bidu, struggling last 2 quarters, next!
ebix - WOW, KICKING BUTT AND TAKING NAMES! LETS GO EBIX! CHEER!
air - good for the long haul, but this looks good to me. this last quarter underperformed from a seasonal analysis/historical perspective. just fyi
sigm - really sucked lately, not a surprise. but, there's something to be said ... just not sure. this thing is sitting on potential, but too risky for my money right now --- anyone know anything about IPTV?
ctsh - expensive, but lots of opportunity on this growth stock.
---- running out of time tonight
lxu - underperformed last quarter, sitting tight
midd - looks like a bread winner for the mid caps. go MIDD!
oii - hurt this last quarter
cmtl - cautious guidance "we're not magicians" --- gotta love that :-)
joyg - double bottom, things looking up from here, kind of a turn around play.
pets - volatile trading, might want to swing trade this one for giggles. undervalued though, just not enough in the charts for my interest
zumz - another good one, another bottom of the cycle play. just not my thing though
kci, ande, beav --- scored below AT&T on a brief screen. not going to even look at. but kci could be good. constant currency basis turn around! called it

EZPW --- ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME THIS IS SO CHEAP??!?!?!? WAKE UP PEOPLE!

buys: kci, bucy, ebix, midd, cedc, pcr, EZPW

agm - looks volatile, will look more tomorrow --- don't think there's a reason to stay awake for this one.

Labels: BUCY, CEDC, ebix, ezpw, kci, midd, pcr

Looks to me like the market bottomed.

PE was roughly 7. We've had lots of ridiculous stimulus.

I haven't looked at the russian market, but it will bottom when oil bottoms.

Labels: AOB, BUCY, EJ, GHII, MTW, SOHU, XIN

Alright, i just spent 2 hours scouring annual and quarterly reports and statements. I am selling CBI in my accounts and buying BUCY.

CBI has had some cost issues and overruns. I thought this was a one time thing! I'm done.

BUCY has fallen more than CBI but BUCY's backlog has increased, CBIs has not.

So --- basically how I make decisions is when I determine that I would rather own one company over another --- I make the switch. BUCY is down SOOO MUCH.. I guaranteed CEDC a week or two ago. Consider this almost the BUCY guarantee... it's really really close

CBI could get better and it should --- but right now... BUCY is the cheap one... with the better track record.

Labels: BUCY, cbi

Todd,

“The $2.7-billion acquisition will establish Manitowoc among the world's top manufacturers of commercial foodservice equipment. Manitowoc said it is also is one of the world's leading producers of cranes and innovative lifting solutions for the global construction industry.” (referring to Edonis).

------------Side note: (the point is to illustrate that a lot of construction companies are going to break trends.. and are priced to do so, but some are strong --- even still)

Breaking a long-running trend, Terex posted a decidedly disappointing third quarter. Net earnings slipped by 34% to $93.8 million, even as net sales increased almost 15% to more than $2.5 billion. The total backlog of pending equipment sales, a crucial forward indicator, fell 14% just since the second quarter. Backlogs for Terex's aerial work platforms and construction equipment fell by more than 60% and 40%, respectively. In contrast, Terex reported an 8% increase in backlogged crane orders, and only a 9% drop in pending sales of mining equipment.
Bucyrus, meanwhile, enjoyed another knockout quarter with a 124% increase in net earnings, a 380-basis point expansion of EBITDA margin to 17.9%, and a whopping 74% increase in total sales backlog to $2.5 billion. The company's entry into the underground mining equipment business with last year's acquisition of DBT lends limited value to year-over-year comparisons, but nonetheless this was a rock-solid quarter for Bucyrus.

-----------------End Side note:

My opinion is that Analysts still need to lower expectations for MTW, but I’m concluding that they’re waiting on earnings to come out before they do it. BUCY is another one of my favorites. TEX used to be, but I took it off the table when I compared TEX and MTW and figured MTW was better… not to mention a couple on campus interviews. You’d be surprised what company reps will tell you if they think you’re looking for a job with them and you ask them for the three things that they think their company can improve on and the most because you want to know if you can help.

My opinion on MTW could change if they come out with Q3 results and I see significant weakness. Remember that investors are dumb and 1-time costs generally hurt the stock price over the next year. That said, MTW could soar. Low risk situation if you ask me. I don’t see it getting whooped much more since it already took a beating when TEX came out weak.

Glen


From: Todd.Johns
Sent: Wednesday, October 22, 2008 3:56 PM
To: gbradfo
Subject: RE: MTW

Thanks Glen,

I believe that it is being punished without cause due to the overall market sell-off and especially in the small-cap segment. I like it for 3 reasons.

1. More tied to large government/energy infrastructure projects, not residential/commercial construction.
2. Diversified internationally, especially in some of the developing, high-growth, countries.
3. Good management and cost controls.
4. oh I forgot, they started in the crane business just short of the Great Depression…if they survived that, they can certainly make it through this economy

Labels: BUCY, MTW