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Paris, Thursday, July 15, 1999

Much Ado About Nothing New in Lee's Taiwan

By Jonathan Mirsky International Herald Tribune

LONDON - So President Lee Teng-hui has said there are two Chinese states and Beijing has called this an ''extremely dangerous step'' by Taipei which is ''at the brink of a precipice'' and is ''playing with fire.''

Is this what Henry Kissinger calls a ''neuralgic issue'' for China, and should Washington start thinking of moving an aircraft carrier or two near Taiwan as it did in 1996? In March of that year the citizens of the Republicof China were about to elect the first democratic government on Chinese soil, and mainland missiles were falling in the Taiwan Straits.

There is no fire, no precipice. Washington has responded coolly that the issue of Taiwan's future ''is a matter for the people on both sides of the Taiwan Straits to resolve.''

In fact the situation is the same as it was in November 1997 when President Lee invited me to come to his office to tell me in three languages (Mandarin, English and Japanese) that ''Taiwan is an independent sovereign country.''

There was a little stir in the room, and I asked Mr. Lee to clarify and to assure me that the interview was on the record. He has a huge smile, and he flashed it several times as he made sure that there was no misunderstanding.

Outside, a member of his staff told me, ''At last he's just come out and said it.'' The next day, however, Foreign Minister Jason Hu said I had misunderstood. ''What President Lee meant was that the Republic of China has been an independent country for 86 years.''

Unfortunately for Mr. Hu, the president had spoken the same words to Keith Richburg of The Washington Post on the same day.

Panicky authorities in Taipei tried again this past weekend to muffle what Mr. Lee had said

He also told me that if he ever visited Beijing he would address Jiang Zemin as ''Chairman,'' and that ''he must call me 'President.''' He would go ''only on condition of complete equality - we must have full dignity.''

On the other hand, he said, ''I would never declare an independent Republic of Taiwan.'' That would trigger a violent reaction.

The present situation was one of two Chinese governments, Mr. Lee continued, the Republic of China on Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. As for Beijing's description of Taiwan as a ''renegade province,'' he brushed that aside. The Republic of China had been in existence for 86 years, with its own flag, army and financial arrangements.

The People's Republic, which had proclaimed itself only in 1949, was a relative Johnny-come-lately which had never ruled Taiwan for one minute. ''If anyone is a renegade, it's them,'' he said with his very biggest smile.

What about reunification? ''For that, China would first have to become a free, democratic, socially just country.'' There could be a federation, he suggested (this has been made more definite in his latest book), or two capitals.

No playing with fire, then. Mr. Lee enjoys these rhetorical mind games, and Beijing gnashes its teeth.

Taiwan is not going to invade the mainland, even though many yearsago Chiang Kai-shek's son Wei-guo, once a corporal in Hitler's Wehrmacht and now a retired Nationalist general on Taiwan, told me in the same building in which I met President Lee that one day ''when we retake the main-land I will be riding in the lead tank.''Nor is Beijing going to play out Deng Xiaoping's threat that if Taiwan ever declared independence, China might go to war. The People's Liberation Army could get across the 160- kilometer-wide straits, taking heavy punishment from Taiwan's excellent air force, and might even get ashore. Once lodged there it would be up against a modern Nationalist army and an enormous militia made up of millions of men who have spent two or three years in the armed forces. The occupation would be marked by years of guerrilla resistance, hardly a sign of ''welcoming the Motherland.''

No, everything will remain as it is. President Lee will continue to tease Beijing, and his staff will worry. Beijing will continue to lose its temper. Trade will enlarge, tourists from Taiwan will marvel at how backward the mainland is, and the two armies, like edgy porcupines, will glare at each other, rattle their quills and not get too close.

The writer, a former East Asia editor of The Times of London, contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune.

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SSSSS	*INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE*	SSSSS
SSSSS	http://www.iht.com Paris, Thursday, July 15, 1999 Much Ado About Nothing New in Lee's Taiwan By Jonathan Mirsky International Herald Tribune LONDON - So President Lee Teng-hui has said there are two Chinese states and Beijing has called this an ''extremely dangerous step'' by Taipei which is ''at the brink of a precipice'' and is ''playing with fire.'' Is this what Henry Kissinger calls a ''neuralgic issue'' for China, and should Washington start thinking of moving an aircraft carrier or two near Taiwan as it did in 1996? In March of that year the citizens of the Republicof China were about to elect the first democratic government on Chinese soil, and mainland missiles were falling in the Taiwan Straits. There is no fire, no precipice. Washington has responded coolly that the issue of Taiwan's future ''is a matter for the people on both sides of the Taiwan Straits to resolve.'' In fact the situation is the same as it was in November 1997 when President Lee invited me to come to his office to tell me in three languages (Mandarin, English and Japanese) that ''Taiwan is an independent sovereign country.'' There was a little stir in the room, and I asked Mr. Lee to clarify and to assure me that the interview was on the record. He has a huge smile, and he flashed it several times as he made sure that there was no misunderstanding. Outside, a member of his staff told me, ''At last he's just come out and said it.'' The next day, however, Foreign Minister Jason Hu said I had misunderstood. ''What President Lee meant was that the Republic of China has been an independent country for 86 years.'' Unfortunately for Mr. Hu, the president had spoken the same words to Keith Richburg of The Washington Post on the same day. Panicky authorities in Taipei tried again this past weekend to muffle what Mr. Lee had said He also told me that if he ever visited Beijing he would address Jiang Zemin as ''Chairman,'' and that ''he must call me 'President.''' He would go ''only on condition of complete equality - we must have full dignity.'' On the other hand, he said, ''I would never declare an independent Republic of Taiwan.'' That would trigger a violent reaction. The present situation was one of two Chinese governments, Mr. Lee continued, the Republic of China on Taiwan and the People's Republic of China. As for Beijing's description of Taiwan as a ''renegade province,'' he brushed that aside. The Republic of China had been in existence for 86 years, with its own flag, army and financial arrangements. The People's Republic, which had proclaimed itself only in 1949, was a relative Johnny-come-lately which had never ruled Taiwan for one minute. ''If anyone is a renegade, it's them,'' he said with his very biggest smile. What about reunification? ''For that, China would first have to become a free, democratic, socially just country.'' There could be a federation, he suggested (this has been made more definite in his latest book), or two capitals. No playing with fire, then. Mr. Lee enjoys these rhetorical mind games, and Beijing gnashes its teeth. Taiwan is not going to invade the mainland, even though many yearsago Chiang Kai-shek's son Wei-guo, once a corporal in Hitler's Wehrmacht and now a retired Nationalist general on Taiwan, told me in the same building in which I met President Lee that one day ''when we retake the main-land I will be riding in the lead tank.''Nor is Beijing going to play out Deng Xiaoping's threat that if Taiwan ever declared independence, China might go to war. The People's Liberation Army could get across the 160- kilometer-wide straits, taking heavy punishment from Taiwan's excellent air force, and might even get ashore. Once lodged there it would be up against a modern Nationalist army and an enormous militia made up of millions of men who have spent two or three years in the armed forces. The occupation would be marked by years of guerrilla resistance, hardly a sign of ''welcoming the Motherland.'' No, everything will remain as it is. President Lee will continue to tease Beijing, and his staff will worry. Beijing will continue to lose its temper. Trade will enlarge, tourists from Taiwan will marvel at how backward the mainland is, and the two armies, like edgy porcupines, will glare at each other, rattle their quills and not get too close. The writer, a former East Asia editor of The Times of London, contributed this comment to the International Herald Tribune. ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss
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