Information and data regarding the 2015 earthquake in Nepal

Gerald Shively, Purdue University

shivelyg@purdue.edu
+1 765 494 4218
+1 765 494 9176
@ProfShively

I am maintaining this page and updating it frequently with information regarding the April 25 and May 12 earthquakes in Nepal. My goal is to provide useful facts and information for rapid dissemination that may not be easily found elsewhere. Please send any comments, corrections or suggestions for links to shivelyg@purdue.edu. The relevant Twitterfeed at the moment appears to be #NepalQuake. A useful “one stop” centralized portal containing information, live news and links to relief efforts is available from Youth in Action.

Thanks to everyone who attended the Purdue candlelight vigil on April 29^th at the Engineering Fountain. The Purdue Exponent story is linked here.

CNN and The Guardian provide comprehensive lists of relief organizations for donations:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/25/world/nepal-earthquake-how-to-help/index.html
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/apr/27/nepal-earthquake-how-you-can-help-donate-aid

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19 May

The news from Nepal has been relatively quiet for a few days. UN Situation Report 15 was issued on 15 May and Report 16 was issued yesterday. Although there have been a few reported instances of tensions and protests surrounding the disbursement of aid and assistance, public security seems OK at this point and efforts appear to be focusing on coordination of interventions, especially those directed at setting up temporary shelters and camps. Unfortunately, one can easily envision dozens of these make-shift temporary camps becoming permanent settlements. One only look to Haiti, to see the potential for problems: five years after Haiti’s 7.0 M_w earthquake, it is estimated that 170,000 people are still living in tents.

15 May

As I suggested more than a week ago, the greatest risk at the moment seems to be the risk of not planting next year’s crops before monsoon rains arrive. Once this “planting window” closes, the opportunity to generate harvests for next year’s food needs will be past, and food aid will be the only pathway available to avert widespread hunger 6-9 months from now. The FAO’s crop calendar for Nepal indicates that May and June are the primary sowing months for several of Nepal’s main crops, including paddy rice, maize, and legumes.

Source: FAO (http://www.fao.org/docrep/v2670e/v2670e02.htm).

14 May

As indicated in yesterday’s UN Situation Report 14 (13 May) aftershocks continue to hamper relief efforts. Many villages remain inaccessible due to landslides, and heavy rain in some districts are frustrating debris removal and emergency response.

13 May

The following image, from the European Space Agency (as reproduced, augmented and reported by Jonathan Amos, a BBC Science Correspondent), shows ground displacement from the April 25^th quake.

12 May

A huge and tragic set-back for Nepal, in the form of second quake on Tuesday afternoon (12:50pm Nepal time). This one, magnitude 7.3, was centered 76km east-northeast of Kathmandu. Here is the United States Geological Survey report. This will clearly generate a new round of suffering and further frustrate recovery and relief efforts. Sigh.

11 May

Although food stocks have been severely affected in Nepal, food markets are showing some signs of recovery, except in areas where pre-quake market infrastructure was already very weak (e.g. the mountains). The UN just produced a useful status report, including some very informative maps.

As indicated in UN Situation Report 13 (11 May), it is estimated that nearly one million children in Nepal “will not be able to return to school unless urgent action is taken to assess schools in the affected districts and provide temporary learning spaces” where schools have been destroyed.

According to the UN, cash-for-work activities are slated to begin in Sindhupalchowk district, to support building demolition and debris removal/management. Cash-for-work programs are exactly what they sound like: cash transfers in exchange for labor devoted to a development project or activity. They are often short-term jobs for low-skilled workers associated with emergency situations or relief efforts. A nice article on what they are, how they work, and what their impacts have been, is provided in a 2010 paper in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization by Mascie-Taylor, Marks, Goto and Islam.

08 May

UN Situation Report 12 (09 May).

07 May

UN Situation Report 11 (06 May).

05 May

UN Situation Report 10 (04 May). As the most recent UN situation report underscores, much of the response focus thus far has been on districts and areas around Kathmandu. That’s understandable, given the area’s population density and ease of access, but remote districts and villages also need to be reached. As I have indicated previously (see below) many mountainous regions were virtually cut-off from the rest of the country before the earthquake, and now that weak transport infrastructure has been further degraded, isolation is assured. There is a small window of opportunity at the moment to provide assistance and to deliver agricultural inputs such as seeds and fertilizer that will be necessary for the next agricultural season. In approximately six weeks the monsoon rains and stormy weather will arrive, at which point access to these remote areas will be virtually impossible. Overall agricultural production, and the ability of households to produce and purchase food, are factors strongly correlated with long-term nutrition among children in rural Nepal. This underscores the importance of paying attention to not just short-term relief, but also long-term investment in Nepal’s agricultural sector.

04 May

As indicated in UN situation report 09 (02 May), the death toll in Nepal continues to climb, and the risk of aftershocks remains high. As foreign correspondent John Elliot points out in The Independent, while the earthquake devastation itself has natural causes, it must be recognized that Nepal’s vulnerability to the earthquake has been building for decades, due to a general disregard on the part of many for precaution and preparedness. Because Nepal sits in a prime earthquake zone, and was hit with a large earthquake 80 years ago, this earthquake came as no surprise to seismologists. Sadly, political instability and past government failings have hampered efforts to improve the situation. Fortunately, local and international response efforts, including those of organizations like MercyCorps, Save the Children, and the International Red Cross are making a huge difference on the ground.

03 May

Might there be anything positive to be found in the disaster? A 2009 study by Jessica Teets in The China Quarterly argues that in the wake of the 2008 Sichuan earthquake participation in relief efforts strengthened civil society through increased capacity, publicity and interaction with local government. Perhaps this is something to think about during the reconstruction process.

02 May

UN Situation Report 08 (01 May).

01 May

In the years leading up to the quake, the child nutrition profile in Nepal had been improving steadily. Nevertheless, levels of acute and chronic malnutrition remain very high in most of the earthquake affected districts (although somewhat better than in many other parts of the country). The graph below shows district-average measures of linear growth (height-for-age Z-scores) for children below the age of 5. According to the 2011 Nepal census, approximately 700,000 children below the age of 2 live in the earthquake-affected districts. These are the individuals at greatest risk from food insecurity. In the absence of rapid deployment of emergency food aid to the affected areas, millions of children will be at risk and if food insecurity persists, recent gains are likely to be eroded.

The population of children under age 2 in the affected districts is as follows:

District	Population under age 2
Arghakhanchi	11,803
Baglung	15,616
Bara	32,492
Bhaktapur	11,693
Chitwan	26,134
Dhading	18,782
Dhanusa	36,047
Dolakha	10,395
Gorkha	15,090
Gulmi	16,657
Kapilbastu	26,915
Kaski	20,401
Kathmandu	56,586
Kavre	20,197
Lalitpur	17,363
Lamjung	9,081
Mahotari	29,757
Makwanpur	21,874
Manang	431
Mustang	622
Myagdi	6,584
Nawalparasi	32,016
Nuwakot	14,743
Palpa	15,024
Parbat	8,521
Parsa	28,281
Pyuthan	13,137
Ramechhap	11,115
Rasuwa	2,301
Rautahat	31,607
Rupandehi	40,058
Sarlahi	35,461
Sindhuli	16,160
Sindhupalchowk	15,764
Syangja	17,400
Tanahu	17,199

Source: 2011 Nepal Census

30 April

UN Nepal situation report No. 07 (30 April)

The unfolding tragedy in Nepal is a result of both the earthquake and the difficulty of getting to affected areas to provide rescue and assistance. This will be an important issue in the weeks and months ahead as efforts shift toward food security and public health concerns. The absolute isolation of villages in Nepal is something that is rarely appreciated by those who have not spent time in the country. Road density, at 14 km of roads per 100 km² of area is extremely low. For comparison, Switzerland (a country with somewhat similar topography to Nepal) has a road density of 173. Neighboring India and China have densities of 125 and 42. Overall road density in the US (which includes a lot of open land in the west) is 66.

The following map clearly shows that, in many cases, because of topography and a shortage of roads, east-west travel in the hills and mountains is severely constrained. Furthermore, many locations are simply inaccessible by road, as the second map shows. Fortunately, many of the most isolated and inaccessible parts of the country, such as those in the far west, are reported to have had relatively less earthquake damage than districts around Kathmandu.

Source: Ministry of Physical Planning and Works, Department of Roads Statistics of Strategic Road Network 2009/10.

Source: Courtesy of Bhim Upadhyaya, Nepal Ministry of Peace and Reconstruction.

The importance of isolation cannot be overestimated. The figure below shows the association between bridge density at the district level (as measured in 2006) and subsequent district-average measures of child linear growth. Isolation undermines child nutrition through many pathways, including access to food and health services.

29 April

UN Nepal situation report No. 06 (29 April)

Someone suggested I list the districts that appear on the UN map I posted yesterday. Here is the list, sorted alphabetically, along with the respective zone designation and some primary characteristics from the 2011 Nepal Census.

District	Zone	Population	Households	Area (sq km)
Arghakhanchi	Hills	197,632	46,835	1,193
Baglung	Hills	268,613	61,522	1,784
Bara	Terai	687,708	108,635	1,190
Bhaktapur	Hills	304,651	68,636	119
Chitwan	Terai	579,984	132,462	2,218
Dhading	Hills	336,067	73,851	1,926
Dhanusa	Terai	754,777	138,249	1,180
Dolakha	Mountains	186,557	45,688	2,191
Gorkha	Hills	271,061	66,506	3,610
Gulmi	Hills	280,160	64,921	1,149
Kapilbastu	Terai	571,936	91,321	1,738
Kaski	Hills	492,098	125,673	2,017
Kathmandu	Hills	1,744,240	436,344	395
Kavre	Hills	381,937	80,720	1,396
Lalitpur	Hills	468,132	109,797	385
Lamjung	Hills	167,724	42,079	1,692
Mahotari	Terai	627,580	111,316	1,002
Makwanpur	Hills	420,477	86,127	2,426
Manang	Mountains	6,538	1,480	2,246
Mustang	Mountains	13,452	3,354	3,573
Myagdi	Hills	113,641	27,762	2,297
Nawalparasi	Terai	643,508	128,793	2,162
Nuwakot	Hills	277,471	59,215	1,121
Palpa	Hills	261,180	59,291	1,373
Parbat	Hills	146,590	35,719	494
Parsa	Terai	601,017	95,536	1,353
Pyuthan	Hills	228,102	47,730	1,309
Ramechhap	Hills	202,646	43,910	1,546
Rasuwa	Mountains	43,300	9,778	1,544
Rautahat	Terai	686,722	106,668	1,126
Rupandehi	Terai	880,196	163,916	1,360
Sarlahi	Terai	769,729	132,844	1,259
Sindhuli	Hills	296,192	57,581	2,491
Sindhupalchowk	Mountains	287,798	66,688	2,542
Syangja	Hills	289,148	68,881	1,164
Tanahu	Hills	323,288	78,309	1,546

Here is the table again, this time sorted in declining order of district population:

District	Zone	Population	Households	Area (sq km)
Kathmandu	Hills	1,744,240	436,344	395
Rupandehi	Terai	880,196	163,916	1,360
Sarlahi	Terai	769,729	132,844	1,259
Dhanusa	Terai	754,777	138,249	1,180
Bara	Terai	687,708	108,635	1,190
Rautahat	Terai	686,722	106,668	1,126
Nawalparasi	Terai	643,508	128,793	2,162
Mahotari	Terai	627,580	111,316	1,002
Parsa	Terai	601,017	95,536	1,353
Chitwan	Terai	579,984	132,462	2,218
Kapilbastu	Terai	571,936	91,321	1,738
Kaski	Hills	492,098	125,673	2,017
Lalitpur	Hills	468,132	109,797	385
Makwanpur	Hills	420,477	86,127	2,426
Kavre	Hills	381,937	80,720	1,396
Dhading	Hills	336,067	73,851	1,926
Tanahu	Hills	323,288	78,309	1,546
Bhaktapur	Hills	304,651	68,636	119
Sindhuli	Hills	296,192	57,581	2,491
Syangja	Hills	289,148	68,881	1,164
Sindhupalchowk	Mountains	287,798	66,688	2,542
Gulmi	Hills	280,160	64,921	1,149
Nuwakot	Hills	277,471	59,215	1,121
Gorkha	Hills	271,061	66,506	3,610
Baglung	Hills	268,613	61,522	1,784
Palpa	Hills	261,180	59,291	1,373
Pyuthan	Hills	228,102	47,730	1,309
Ramechhap	Hills	202,646	43,910	1,546
Arghakhanchi	Hills	197,632	46,835	1,193
Dolakha	Mountains	186,557	45,688	2,191
Lamjung	Hills	167,724	42,079	1,692
Parbat	Hills	146,590	35,719	494
Myagdi	Hills	113,641	27,762	2,297
Rasuwa	Mountains	43,300	9,778	1,544
Mustang	Mountains	13,452	3,354	3,573
Manang	Mountains	6,538	1,480	2,246

Recent media and UN reports suggest 39 affected districts, but the UN map highlights only 36 districts. It is also being widely reported that approximately 8 million people are affected, and that more than a million require immediate food assistance.

The Nepal census data suggest a population of roughly 14 million in the 36 districts listed above, which leads me to conclude that the reported number of 8 million affected people is likely an underestimate, and will probably be revised upward in the coming days, as information arrives from cut-off areas. The UN, for example (see situation report #4) estimates the number of affected people using “data from the 2011 census and government guidance that 50 per cent of the total population in affected districts is affected,” which is – as they indicate – “an indicative figure which can be used only for preliminary planning.”

With a total population of 28 million in the country as a whole, it is reasonable to expect that roughly half the population has been directly affected by the quake. Obviously, even those not directly impacted will be indirectly affected through a range of market and non-market channels. The latest media reports suggest massive out-migration – perhaps as many as 100,000 people thus far – from the Kathmandu valley (although to where, exactly, one has to wonder).

Here is a chart showing population by district for those districts on the list:

And another specifically for the population of children under age 2:

28 April

The following map was created by the UN country team in Nepal and shows the districts affected by the earthquake and estimated likely severity of damage (source: http://www.un.org.np/, accessed 28 April 2015).

For comparison, here is the 2011 poverty map of Nepal prepared by the World Bank (source: http://dataviz.worldbank.org/t/SASEP/views/NepalTargetLevelFinal/NepalPovertyMap2011?:embed=y&:display_count=no, accessed 28 April 2015)

Useful links to data include:

Nepal Central Bureau of Statistics: http://cbs.gov.np/

Nepal Country Profile: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nepal

FAO: http://coin.fao.org/cms/world/nepal/Home.html

My own background review from 2011 on the overall pre-quake food security and nutrition situation in Nepal is linked here.

Links to news:

BBC Asia: http://www.bbc.com/news/world/asia

NY Times Asia: http://www.nytimes.com/pages/world/asia/index.html

Google’s Person Finder Tool:
http://google.org/personfinder/2015-nepal-earthquake

UN Nepal situation report No. 05 (28 April)

27 April

UN Nepal situation report No. 04 (27 April)

26 April

UN Nepal situation report No. 03 (26 April)
UN Nepal situation report No. 02 (26 April)

25 April

UN Nepal situation report No. 01 (25 April)

A general summary of the quake, as well as predictions of aftershocks, is available from the US Geological Survey. The NY Times has a good map, updated regularly, showing the epicenter of the earthquake, the location of aftershocks, and reported deaths.