SAP Big Ten Basketball Power Rankings: Week 10 (2/1-2/6)
by Jacob Hosteter, Feb. 1, 2021
In a very unusual season, one thing remains the same: the Big Ten is the best basketball conference once again, with the Big 12 the only other conference having an argument. As of Monday, Feb. 1, the Big Ten had 11 of the 14 teams placed in the top 50 of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), with a 14 team average of 43.7, and 34.5 if you take out Nebraska. NET is the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s main metric used to decide tournament-worthy squads, taking into account various things, such as the team’s opponents, game locations, winners of those games, net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted win percentage, and the scoring margin, all courtesy of si.com. The Big 12, for comparison, has 7 of their 10 teams inside the top 50, with a league average of 59.6, which includes two of the worst Power 5 teams in Iowa State and Kansas State. The Big Ten season has been pretty crazy so far, with road upsets, surprise teams, and hugely disappointing teams, which should make the last month of the season very interesting. Onto the rankings…
Tier 1
1. Michigan-Last Week: 1, (13-1, 8-1), NET: 3
The obvious number one team in the conference, as they are the only team in the league with just one loss, coming at Minnesota on Jan. 16, 75-57. Since that loss, they have dominated two solid teams in Maryland and Purdue, blowing them both out by 15+ points. Led by freshman center sensation Hunter Dickinson and senior forward Isaiah Livers, Michigan has risen to #4 in the AP Poll after starting in the preseason at #25 and has opened up a 1.5 game lead ahead of second place Illinois and Ohio State, as of Feb. 1. Dickinson has been one of the best players in the league, regardless of year, averaging 15.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 1.4 BPG on 68.8% shooting, putting him in the conversation for B1G Freshman of the Year. Livers has been equally impressive, averaging 14.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 2.4 APG on 48.9% shooting and 44.6% from three. Franz Wagner, Eli Brooks, Chaundee Brown, and Mike Smith are other major contributors for the league’s best team. The Wolverines have been shut down now for a bit due to COVID, not having a game until February 11 as of now, so they will probably hold onto the #1 spot until then, unless the next two teams can overtake them. A legit Final Four contender, who could potentially defeat Gonzaga or Baylor, the group would be genuinely surprised if Michigan does not win the Big Ten, as shown by the unanimous first-place vote. Up Next: 2/11 vs. Illinois
Tier 2
2. Illinois-Last Week: 4, (11-5, 7-3), NET: 5
Just edging out third-place Iowa with 5 of 9 second-place votes is Illinois. The Fighting Illini have had an up-and-down season, starting out 5-3 in the league, which included back-to-back home losses to Maryland and Ohio State, but have since won two straight against Penn State and Iowa, most recently on Jan. 29. Illinois probably has the most talented roster in the league, headlined by two superstars in Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn, but have had issues playing a full 40 minutes, which has started to change over the past couple weeks. Their 80-75 win over then-#7 Iowa was impressive, shooting 50% from the floor, 82% from the line, and scoring 1.14 points per possession, per KenPom.com, while holding Luka Garza to 19 points on 18 shots. If anyone could potentially dethrone front-running Michigan, it would be Illinois, but they need Cockburn and Dosunmu to play like the stars they are. This Week: 2/2 at Indiana, 2/6 vs. Wisconsin
3. Iowa-Last Week: 2, (12-4, 6-3), NET: 6
The group’s number three team has hit a bit of a rough stretch, dropping two straight, one at home to Indiana on Jan. 21 and, most recently, to Illinois on Friday. Iowa has one of the most potent offenses in America, coming in at number two with an adjusted efficiency of 124.5, per Kenpom, which is not their problem, their 97th ranked defense is, which is why they have dropped back-to-back games for the first time all season. Luka Garza is playing like the National Player of the Year so far, averaging 26.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 1.6 APG, on 60.2% from the floor and 74.8% at the line. With Illinois, I think the Hawkeyes have the best chance of potentially running down Michigan in the conference. They will need to improve on the defensive side of the ball if they want to do not only that, but also potentially get to a Final Four. Personally, see them as one of the most vulnerable top 4 seeds in the NCAAs if they don’t have the threes dropping, but a team that could also win it all. This Week: 2/2 vs. Michigan State, 2/4 vs. Ohio State, 2/7 at Indiana
Tier 3
4. Purdue-Last Week: 6, (12-6, 7-4), NET: 24
Starting out the third tier of our power rankings is Purdue, edging out Ohio State for the spot by 5 points. The Boilers are the hottest team in the Big Ten, winning five of their last six games, the only blemish coming to Michigan 70-53. After being 2-3 in the league on Jan. 2, Purdue has jumped up to being in a three-way tie for third place with Ohio State and Wisconsin. The main catalyst for this hot streak has been junior forward Trevion Williams, one of the best players in the league. Over these last six, Williams has been averaging 18 PPG, 10.3 RPG, and 1.8 APG, while shooting 56.2% from the floor. Williams and the team have been winning both pretty and ugly, beating Michigan State and Ohio State while scoring less than 70, and beating Indiana, Penn State, and Minnesota while scoring 80 or more. In the most recent game, Purdue made 8 of 15 threes and got a career-high 29 from Brandon Newman, while holding Marcus Carr and Minnesota to 62 points on 38.6% shooting. This Week: 2/2 at Maryland, 2/6 vs. Northwestern
5. Ohio State-Last Week: 5, (14-4, 8-4), NET: 12
Right with Purdue, Ohio State is probably the second hottest team in the league, winning six of seven, with the only loss being to Purdue at home on Jan. 19. This past week, the Buckeyes went 2-0 with wins at home over Penn State and Michigan State, scoring 79 or more in both. E.J. Liddell was the team’s MVP of the week, averaging 21.0 PPG and 7.5 RPG, while shooting 12 for 22 from the floor. Chris Holtman has done an amazing job this season, leading Ohio State to second place without having a natural point guard in the lineup for a vast majority of the season. This Week: 2/4 at Iowa
6. Wisconsin-Last Week: 3 (13-5, 7-4), NET: 18
The last team in our third tier is Wisconsin, who has really struggled the last ten days or so. In their last three they have gone just 1-2, most recently suffering a defeat at Penn State on Saturday, 81-71. In that game, they allowed the Nittany Lions to shoot 45% from the floor and 1.14 points per possession, while only shooting 25% from three and turning it over 12 times to PSU’s 6. Nate Reuvers had a nice game, scoring 18 while grabbing 5 boards, but Wisconsin struggles when giving up 70 or more points, going just 2-4. Wisconsin probably has a ceiling of the Sweet 16. This Week: 2/2 vs. Penn State, 2/6 at Illinois
Tier 4
7. Rutgers-Last Week: 8 (9-6, 5-6), NET:32
Starting off tier 4, and marking a huge gap of 23 points between 6th and 7th place in our rankings is Rutgers, who has won three straight after dropping five straight. They have held their past three opponents to 54.3 PPG on 37.5% shooting, highlighted by last Tuesday’s slaughter of Michigan State, when they beat the Spartans 67-37. The Scarlet Knights have started to rediscover their defense from the start of the year that got them as high as number 11 in the AP Poll. Usual starter Jacob Young was brought off the bench on Sunday against Northwestern and played very well, scoring 19 with 2 boards and 2 assists, shooting 6-10 from the floor. Rutgers is playing themselves back into the NCAA Tournament discussion, and will have plenty of opportunities to build their resume in the loaded Big Ten. This Week: 2/4 vs. Minnesota
8. Minnesota-Last Week: 7 (11-6, 4-6), NET: 49
The massive discrepancy between home and road Minnesota continues, with the Gophers still winless away from the Barn after Friday night’s 81-62 loss at Purdue. Minnesota was held to 0.98 points per possession, per KenPom, while allowing Purdue to shoot 47.4% from the floor. Marcus Carr played probably his worst game of the season on Saturday night, scoring just 6 points on 2-13 shooting, while turning it over 2 times and committing 4 fouls. Having dropped four of five and not having a single road or neutral win yet, Minnesota has played themselves from firmly in the field of 68, to firmly on the bubble. This Week: 2/4 at Rutgers
9. Penn State-Last Week: 13 (6-7, 3-6), NET: 29
Penn State has played very well since coming back on Jan. 17 from a two week COVID pause, going 3-3 but 3-1 in their last four. They are much better than their 6-7 record would indicate, with all their losses except one being by single digits, which makes them a very dangerous team over these last five or so weeks of the regular season, as evidenced by Saturday’s 81-71 victory over Wisconsin. Over the last four games, Izaiah Brockington (15.0/5.8/1.8) and Seth Lundy (18.5/4.8/2.3) have been a very good duo for the Nittany Lions, who have scored 79 points per game. All but one of their games the rest of the way are against either Quad 1 or 2, so they could very well play themselves into having a legit argument to be in the tourney. This Week: 2/2 at Wisconsin, 2/2 vs. Maryland
10. Indiana-Last Week: 11 (9-7, 4-5), NET: 47
Indiana has been in a stretch of alternating wins and losses the past six games, making one believe they were starting to turn the corner under Archie Miller, but have been unable to string wins together. This has been shown most recently last Sunday, when they lost to Rutgers at home, the game after their biggest win of the season over Iowa. In that Rutgers game, they allowed the Scarlet Knights to shoot 50.9% from the floor, giving up 1.12 points per possession. Trayce Jackson-Davis is one of the best bigs in the country and Armaan Franklin is a solid wing player, but the Hoosiers just haven’t been able to consistently put it together this season, and are on the bubble because of it. They have definitely had their missed chances, with five of their seven losses coming by single digits. This Week: 2/2 vs. Illinois, 2/7 vs. Iowa
11. Maryland-Last Week: 11 (9-8, 3-7), NET: 42
Maryland is a team that seems to win on the road against ranked teams, but doesn’t really beat anyone else. All three of their conference wins are the road against top 25 teams: Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota. Similar to Indiana, the Terrapins just haven’t been able to get on a roll in conference, causing them to drop to 3-7 in league. They are still a threat to get going though, thanks to their solid backcourt consisting of Aaron Wiggins (12.5/5.1/2.9), Eric Ayala (13.7/3.3/2.1), and Darryl Morsell (8.3/4.1/2.8), and if they can get to 9-10 in conference, they could be right there for a tourney bid. This last week they had just one game, losing to Wisconsin 61-55, where they were held to just 0.87 points per possession on 35.8% shooting. This Week: 2/2 vs. Purdue, 2/5 at Penn State
Tier 5
12. Michigan State-Last Week: 9 (8-6, 2-6), NET: 95
Oh how the mighty have fallen. After being ranked #13 in the preseason top 25 and getting as high as #4, Michigan State has lost six of their last eight games, including three in a row. Rocket Watts and Marcus Bingham Jr. have struggled to fill the holes left by Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman, and Joey Hauser has been good but not great. The Marquette transfer has averaged 11.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 1.7 APG in his first season in East Lansing. This past week was definitely the Spartans’ worst of the season, suffering two road losses by a combined 47 points, including a 30 point defeat to Rutgers on Thursday. Over the last two, they allowed Ohio State and Rutgers to score 73 PPG on 44.3% shooting, which isn’t that bad, but did look bad because of their offense. In the two games, Michigan State shot 30.3% from the floor and turned it over 31 times. Michigan State and Tom Izzo’s long streak of making the tournament is in serious jeopardy of ending this season. This Week: 2/2 at Iowa, 2/6 vs. Nebraska
13. Northwestern-Last Week: 12 (6-8, 3-7), NET: 86
After starting out 3-0 in conference and being ranked in the top 25, Northwestern has since dropped 8 straight games, losing by an average of 14.9 PPG while giving up 80.4 PPG. The Wildcats have three solid players in Miller Kopp (13.7/2.8/1.3), Chase Audige (12.1/3.4/1.6), and Pete Nance (11.5/6.7/1.9), but have just really struggled through the gauntlet that is the Big Ten. In order to even be in the conversation for the tourney, they’ll probably need to finish 6-3 and win at least one in the Big Ten Tournament. What was looking like a surprise tournament team, Northwestern has crashed hard back down to earth. This Week: 2/6 at Purdue
Tier 6
14. Nebraska-Last Week: 14 (4-8, 0-5), NET: 164
Nebraska has not played a game since January 10th because of COVID, when they lost to Indiana at home 84-76, and that is probably a good thing. The Huskers are a team that is very depleted on talent, which explains their 4-8 record. Their offensive and defensive efficiencies are both really bad, rating 133rd and 120th on KenPom, respectively. Nebraska has two really solid players in Teddy Allen (18.4/5.1/1.3) and Dalano Banton (12.6/6.8/5.1), but there is not much help behind them. Nebraska, in their five conference defeats, are scoring just 65.8 PPG and losing by an average of 15.2, but two of those are single digit losses to Michigan State and Indiana. I think Nebraska could surprise a team at home like Maryland or Rutgers, but outside of those, I don’t really see Nebraska winning another game. Fred Hoiberg has a long way to go to rebuild this program. This Week: 2/6 at Michigan State
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Image: Shot by Michael Conroy/ AP Photo