Yamamoto to the Mets: Potentially the Silent Steal of the Offseason

by James Maguire, Feb. 3, 2021

On Feb. 1, the Miami Marlins sent Jordan Yamamoto, 24, to the New York Mets in exchange for Frederico Polanco, 19, an infield prospect. While this deal seems like a somewhat insignificant move for depth, I truly believe that this could end up being a steal for the Mets.

In Yamamoto’s small sample size, he has been the definition of inconsistent, but his spin rates and amazing first few starts back in 2019 lead me to believe he potentially has the stuff to become very good, or even elite, at the major league level.

When Yamamoto first came up during the summer in 2019, he looked very promising with an ERA of 1.59 after 6 games, and with a disgusting slider and curveball to accompany those stats. However, in August of 2019, he was put onto the IL with a forearm strain, and he has not quite been the same since, finishing the year with a 4.46 ERA and a FIP above 4.5.

In 2020, he only threw 11.1 innings and got absolutely lit up in those innings, allowing 23 earned runs and a barrel percentage of 21.3%, while also having an average fastball velocity right around 90 mph. That was 2 mph slower than in 2019.

Those struggles led him to be put on waivers on January 28, and eventually be traded to the Mets, leading to the end of his career with the Marlins.

According to Baseball Savant, his fastball velocity was only in the 8th percentile, which obviously is not ideal, but his fastball and curve spin rates were in the 83rd and 78th percentile, respectively.

Those spin rate numbers stick out to me as proof that he absolutely has the “stuff”, but it seems he needs to hone in that "stuff" and find ways to utilize it to its full extent.

Another potential statistic that stuck out to me was his xwOBA over the last 100 plate appearances.

While Yamamoto is well over the league average in xwOBA, defined by Baseball Savant as being “formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed,” the small sample size of 11.1 innings in 2020 leads me to believe that it should not define him as a pitcher.

He struggled, yes, but his slider broke 6.5 more inches than league average and his curve 3.5 more inches than league average. That –– tied in with the spin rates –– leads me to believe he has the potential to become a really solid major league arm.

Another thing that helps Yamamoto’s cause is that he will be joining a Mets squad with multiple elite righties in DeGrom and Syndergaard, who both have very good spin rates and have been successful that could teach him a thing or two.

I believe that the Marlins are giving up on him too soon, especially because he is young and still has 6 full years of team control. While Polanco has upside, he was not even one of the Mets top 30 prospects. Nobody really knows what to expect as he has not played above the Dominican and Gulf Coast Leagues, where he only hit .244, but did have 20 doubles and 50 RBIs over 2 seasons.

While this analysis does not guarantee he will turn a corner in his career and become a staple of the Mets rotation, I believe it gives insight as to why it is definitely a real possibility that he could turn into something special.

Yamamoto is a low-risk player with a high ceiling, and in a league where spin rates have recently shown to be king, he has a shot to be up there near the top in the coming seasons.

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Image: Jordan Yamamoto via Twitter @jyamaz50

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