Non Top-100 Prospects that will make a Splash in 2021
by Kyle Stowe, March 18, 2021
Every year, Spring Training is used by every Major League ballclub to get a look at many players in their organization. Typical baseball fans get very excited about how many top-100 prospects their team has, and how well they are doing against major league talent. Why wouldn’t they? Who wouldn’t be excited about names like Wander Franco, Spencer Torkelson, or Jared Kelenic? Those guys often turn into phenoms like Fernando Tatis or Bryce Harper. However, there are always surprises; guys that weren’t on any fan’s radar heading into the season that end up taking the league by storm, but their employers knew their potential. Let’s take a look at some of those non top-100 prospects that have a chance at the Rookie of the Year in 2021… (Note: none of these players have any Major League Service Time)
Most Intriguing
Bailey Ober, SP - Twins
twinsdaily.com
The Twins are liking what they see from their 12th round pick in 2017. The 6’9” righty has done nothing but good things in the minors so far, racking up a 11.05 K/9 and only a 1.04 BB/9 from 2017-19. His ability to control the zone while still being dominant in strikeouts is a baseball executive’s dream, and a hitting coach’s nightmare. Amongst minor league pitchers who qualified over 2017-19, Ober ranks 5th in K/BB, 11th in FIP with 2.22, and 8th in xFIP with 2.33. Those numbers are very similar to MLB.com’s No. 72 prospect Brendan McKay, who got a lot of hype trying to become another pitcher/batter combo player. Maybe the most intriguing aspect of analyzing Ober is the team he plays for. The Twins surprised many this offseason by not adding much in the starting rotation, only adding Matt Shoemaker after losing Jake Odorizzi, Rich Hill, and Homer Bailey to free agency. Maybe they know they have some internal options that could help them be competitive in the AL Central this season.
Joe Ryan, SP - Rays
mlb.com
It probably doesn’t shock you the Rays have a guy on this list; it sure doesn’t shock me. The 24-year-old was a 7th round selection in 2018 for Tampa, and also hasn’t disappointed in the minors. Ryan has a whopping 13.16 K/9 from 2018-19, in which he ranks 12th amongst all minor league qualifiers in that span. He limits his walks, though not as well as Ober does, registering a 2.31 BB/9. The 6’2” righty ranks 12th in FIP with 2.20, and 6th in xFIP with 2.23 amongst those same qualifiers. The Rays have shown this offseason that they are likely going to have a deep pitching staff, maybe without the top arms. They lost Charlie Morton via free agency and Blake Snell via trade, but picked up Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and Chris Archer, and still have guys like Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough. With the age and uncertainty of some of these options, Ryan will likely get his chance to crack the starting rotation, but it won’t be without a fight, as the Rays are stacked with starting pitching prospects with names like Brendan McKay, Luis Patiño, Shane McClanahan, and Shane Baz, all MLB.com top-100 prospects.
Seth Beer, 1B/OF - Diamondbacks
perfectgame.org
The former 1st round pick of the Astros is looking to crack the big leagues with the Diamondbacks this season. Beer was part of the package that sent Zack Greinke to the Astros at the 2019 Trade Deadline. The 24-year-old lefty has played pretty stellar in the minors, with a .388 OBP, .503 SLG from 2018-19. The more analytical numbers favor Beer as well, as he recorded a .405 wOBA, and 155 wRC+. He lacks speed, which might keep him as a long-term option at first base or designated hitter if the national league adopts it. The Diamondbacks don’t have much major league talent that would keep Beer from breaking through, but he might have to start as a pinch hitter.
Tyler Ivey, SP - Astros
247sports.com
A pitcher whose stock has climbed dramatically due to the recent injuries to Framber Valdez and Forrest Whitley, Ivey looks to crack the majors for the first time this year. The 6’4” righty was a third rounder for the Astros, and for those of you who don’t know, the Astros rarely miss on draft picks. Ivey has recorded 202.1 innings in the minor leagues over three seasons (2017-19), pitching mostly has a starter. Over that span, the righty has registered a 10.99 K/9 and 2.80 BB/9, giving him a 3.92 K/BB. His FIP is .31 points below his ERA, signaling that he likely hasn’t gotten much fielding help or has had bad luck in hit placement. The 24-year-old features a five pitch mix, the best of which appears to be his curveball according to FanGraph’s Prospect Report. His ability to improve his changeup and slider will help the Astros decide whether or not to keep him in the rotation. Either way, I wouldn’t bet against the Astros in regards to pitching development, and Ivey certainly has shown he is capable of putting up good numbers.
Drew Carlton, RP - Tigers
Mlive.com
The former 2017 32nd round pick of the Detroit Tigers has been stellar in his three years in the minor leagues. The 25-year-old has a 9.07 K/9 and 1.85 BB/9, giving him an admirable 4.91 K/BB from 2017-19. The righty is able to keep the ball in the ballpark, maintaining a 0.22 HR/9 and a FIP of 2.33, which ranks 21st for all qualified minor leaguers from 2017-19. Carlton stands at 6’1”, and was invited to spring training this year as a non-roster invitee. The lack of big names in that Tiger bullpen might give Carlton a chance to crack the majors this year, and if he does, I expect some big numbers out of him.
Middle-of-the-Pack
Jean Carlos Mejia, SP/RP - Cleveland
The 24-year-old right hander has been in Cleveland’s organization since 2014, and has done nothing but impress them so far. With 274.1 innings recorded, Mejia has a modest 8.6 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9, but a stellar 0.13 HR/9. The homerun and walk prevention led him to a 1.07 career minor league WHIP and a 2.69 FIP. Cleveland’s history with pitching development doesn’t hurt his cause either.
Terrin Vavra, SS - Orioles
The former 2018 3rd round pick was invited to camp this spring as a non-roster invitee. He has shown he can perform early in his professional career, boastin a minor league career 13.5 BB%, while only striking out 15.6% of the time. In 652 plate appearances, all for the Rockies organization, Vavra recorded a .313/.405/.483 slash line, with a .402 wOBA and 154 wRC+. Vavra was part of the package that sent reliever Mychal Givens to Colorado last season. Since Vavra hasn’t played above single-A ball, it might be too early to see Vavra in a major league uniform this season, but he is bound to see the majors soon.
Addison Russ, RP - Yankees
The 26-year-old non-roster invitee was previously a 19th round pick by the Phillies. Russ was acquired by the Yankees in a deal that sent reliever David Hale to the Phillies. Russ is a high-strikeout reliever, recording a 11.79 K/9 in three minor league seasons (2017-19). The righty has done a solid job at keeping batters off the bases, too, registering a 2.59 BB/9 and 1.09 WHIP. All in all, having pitching depth is necessary, and if Russ gets a shot, he will likely deliver for the Yankees.
Griffin Conine, OF - Marlins
A former 2nd round pick for the Blue Jays, Conine was dealt to Miami in exchange for infielder Jonathan Villar. The second generation Marlin has invested in the new-aged thinking of power first, even if it results in a lot of strikeouts. Conine has struck out 32.4% of his minor league at-bats, but walks 9.9% of the time. Conine has recorded a .266/.348/.515 slash line, including a .389 wOBA and 143 wRC+. He might struggle in his first crack at the big leagues, but if he can work the strike zone a bit, he should become a pretty productive middle-of-the-order hitter.
Shots in the Dark
Greg Jones, SS - Rays
What if I told you Wander Franco wasn’t even the best shortstop prospect for the Rays? I won’t, but what if I did?
GCasey Golden, OF - Rockies
Let’s throw the Rockies a bone this season, right?
Pedro Pages, C - Cardinals
Yadi is irreplaceable, but Pages could come close.
Jake Fishman, RP - Marlines
The last name just fits, right?
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All stats were obtained from Fangraphs.com
All news were obtained from mlbtraderumors.com
All contract details were obtained from spotrac.com